IN SOME EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, MUSLIM POPULATION COULD TRIPLE, SAYS REPORT…
IN SOME EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, MUSLIM POPULATION COULD TRIPLE, SAYS REPORT…
The Muslim population in some European countries could triple by
2050 while it will barely change in others, according to new projections
released by the Washington-based Pew Research Center.
Europe’s Growing Muslim Population, shows a stark west-east divide. The Muslim share of
Germany’s population could grow from 6.1% in 2016 to 19.7% in 2050 if high
migration continues, whereas over the border Poland’s share would change from
0.1% to 0.2% in the same scenario.
Even if all current 28 EU members, plus Norway
and Switzerland, closed their borders to migrants, the Muslim population share
in the west would continue to grow owing to a younger age profile and higher
fertility rates, but remain very low in the east.
According to Pew’s data, Muslims made up 4.9%
of Europe’s population in 2016, with an estimated 25.8 million people across 30
countries, up from 19.5 million people in 2010. The number of Muslim migrants
arriving in Europe surged
after 2014 to almost half a million annually, largely due to people fleeing
conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Researchers considered three scenarios: zero
migration between 2016 and 2050; medium migration, in which the flow of
refugees stops but people continue to migrate for other reasons; and high
migration, in which the record flow of migrants between 2014 and 2016 continues
indefinitely with the same religious composition.
In the zero migration scenarios, the Muslim
population in Europe is expected to rise from 4.9% to 7.4%. Apart from Cyprus,
which has a high Muslim share (25.4%) due to the historical presence of Turkish Cypriots in the north of the island, France would have Europe’s biggest share of
population with 12.7%, up from 8.8%.
In the medium migration scenario - perhaps the
most likely - Sweden would have the biggest share of population at 20.5%. The
UK’s share would rise from 6.3% in 2016 to 16.7%. Finland’s Muslim share would
grow from 2.7% to 11.4% and most western European countries would face a big
jump.
If high migration continues until 2050,
Sweden’s Muslim share will grow to 30.6%, Finland’s to 15% and Norway’s to 17%.
In Eastern Europe, most countries will continue to have a relatively low Muslim
share of population, with only Hungary and Greece seeing significant increases from 2016.
Apart from migration, the number of Muslims in
Europe is set to grow considerably through natural increases. Europe’s Muslims
have more children than members of other religious groups, or people of no
religion, the study shows. The European average fertility rate is 2.6 for Muslims compared to 1.6 for non-Muslims.
The Muslim population is also much younger
than non-Muslims. The proportion of Muslims under the age of 15 is 27%, nearly
double the proportion of under-15 non-Muslims at 15%. “While Europe’s Muslim population is expected
to grow in all three scenarios - and more than double in the medium and high
migration scenarios – Europe’s non-Muslims, on the other hand, are projected to
decline in total number in each scenario,” says the Pew report.
Historically, a relatively share of migrants
to Europe were refugees from violence or persecution, with most coming for
other reasons. Nearly half of all recent migrants to Europe were non-Muslims,
with Christians making up the next largest group.
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